As TASS reported on January 2, experts interviewed by TASS believe that global oil demand in 2024 may reach a new record. In general, the oil market will remain in balance throughout the year, but the specifics will largely depend on the actions of OPEC+ and the United States, as well as the growth rate of the Chinese economy.
Almaz Ihsanov, an expert of the Analytical Center of the Fuel Dynamics Complex, said that in the third and fourth quarters of 2023, against the backdrop of a significant increase in demand from China and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the oil market will experience a slight supply shortage, and the key factor affecting the balance of supply and demand on the world market will be the voluntary reduction of production by the OPEC+ member countries. The key factor influencing the balance of supply and demand on the world market is the voluntary reduction of production by OPEC+ members. At the same time, the expert noted that the demand for oil in 2023 exceeds the level of 2019, despite forecasts that the demand for oil will peak soon and will not be able to return to the level before the outbreak of the new crown disease. Ihsanov said, "It is expected that oil demand will hit a new record in 2024, which is possible even if key macro-indicators in major oil-consuming countries are lower than expected."
According to Nikolai Dudchenko, an analyst at Finam Investment Group, there are two main factors that could affect the oil market in 2024: the willingness of OPEC+ to continue to cut production, and the ability of the United States to balance the market. Dudchenko pointed out that at present, only the Permian Basin oil production in the United States continues to grow significantly, the oil production of the mining area accounted for about half of the United States national production. Like the U.S. strategic reserve, the U.S. ability to increase production is not unlimited," Dudchenko said. By the way, the U.S. has resumed slowly replenishing its stockpiles. Total purchases have reached 11 million barrels."
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