What Is The Trend Of International Oil Prices in 2024? Here Comes The Latest Analysis

International oil prices have fluctuated and the impact of major factors has not lived up to expectations

At the beginning of 2023, institutions generally predicted that the world's major economies would fall into recession, which would be accompanied by high inflation and intense monetary tightening. As a result of this pessimistic atmosphere, the industry expected international oil prices to fall more sharply. This was also the case. In 2023, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was US$82.05/bbl, down US$16.4/bbl, or 16.66%, compared with 2022; it closed at US$77.08/bbl at the end of the year, a drop of 10.28% compared with the end of 2022; the highest price in the year was closed at US$95.35/bbl, and the lowest price was closed at US$70.06/bbl, with an oscillating amplitude of 29.44%. In 2023, the average price of WTI crude oil futures was US$77.63/bbl, down US$16.62/bbl, or 17.63%, compared with 2022; it closed at US$71.33/bbl at the end of the year, down 11.13%, compared with the end of 2022; it closed at a high of US$95.03/bbl during the year, and a low of US$63.64/bbl, with an oscillating amplitude of 39.11%. 2023 was the the most stable year for international oil price operation since 2014, with the smallest oscillation amplitude for both Brent oil price and WTI oil price.

Overall, in 2023, international oil prices showed a trend of falling, then rising, then falling again, which can be divided into three stages. First, the downward oscillation before July. Influenced more profoundly by the strong expectations of the slowdown in world economic growth and the continuation of monetary policy tightening, both Brent and WTI oil prices hit their lowest point since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The second was the rapid climb from July to September. Influenced by OPEC+'s extension of production cuts (including Saudi Arabia's voluntary additional 1 million bpd cut), continued low inflation in Europe, the United States, and other major Western economies, and continued declines in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, international oil prices continued to rise, reaching their highest point of the year on September 28th. The third is the rapid decline after October. Although the Palestinian-Israeli conflict had a short-lived impact on international oil prices, with inflation further declining to below 4%, the concerns of market participants generally shifted to when the Federal Reserve would end the interest rate hiking process as well as the emergence of the cumulative effects of monetary tightening policies in major Western economies, market sentiment of wait-and-see increased, trading activity decreased, and the international oil price entered a downward channel.

Compared with the forecasts and market atmosphere at the beginning of the year, the operation of international oil prices in 2023 can be summarized as "three unmet expectations".